A weather forecaster has a 60% chance of predicting the weather correctly today. If she is correct, then the probability of being correct the next day is 80%. If she is wrong, the chance of predicting incorrectly the next day is increased by 25% that she was wrong the previous day. What is the probability that the forecaster will predict the weather correctly in exactly two of the next three days?

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Answer:

According to the National Weather Service, if you see a 40 percent chance of rain, "there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area."

Step-by-step explanation:

The probability that the forecaster will predict the weather correctly in exactly two of the next three days is 0.48 or 48%.

For two events A and B, by chain rule, we have:

[tex]P(A \cap B) = P(B)P(A|B) = P(A)P(B|A)[/tex]

where P(A|B) is the probability of occurrence of A given that B already occurred.

A weather forecaster has a 60% chance of predicting the weather correctly today.

If she is correct, then the probability of being correct the next day is 80%.

If she is wrong, the chance of predicting incorrectly the next day is increased by 25% that she was wrong the previous day.

Let the chance of predicting the weather correctly today be A.

Let the chance of predicting the weather correctly the next day be B.

Then the probability that the forecaster will predict the weather correctly in exactly two of the next three days will be

[tex]P(A \cap B) = P(A)P(B|A) = 0.6 \times 0.8 = 0.48[/tex]

More about the chain rule of probability link is given below.

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